RSSHandicapping Sports Betting Futures Plays
Nov 18
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Sports betting futures plays are often dismissed by more serious handicappers as poor values by definition. They’re most frequently associated with rank amateurs looking for a big payoff with little risk. For example, a player might be entranced with a +10000 payoff should St. George, Utah be awarded the 2020 Summer Olympic games. While that would definitely be a nice payday, the problem is that the “true odds” of St. George, Utah hosting the Olympics is well in excess of a million to one. That means that even the huge ‘plus number’ offered represents an underlay situation and a poor wagering value.
Even for the more pragmatic bettor, the inherent problems with futures wagers are readily apparent. You have to tie up your wagering capital for a long time. More significantly, once your bet is down youre at the mercy of the countless interceding events that can influence the fortunes of a sports team. Its hard enough trying to weigh the significance of scheduling, injuries, personnel movement and so forth on a day to day basis. Controlling for all of these variables over an entire season is impossible.
So why bet futures at all? More so than anything else, its essential to think of sports wagering not in terms of who wins or loses, but in terms of value. Properly utilized, future book wagers are often a great source of value. Below are some of the ways I like to use future wagers:
The early bird gets the worm. The early bettor gets the value: Many sports books offer non-sports proposition bets, including entertainment based wagers like the Academy Awards. Someone who enjoys following the industry and keeping up-to-date on whats happening in Hollywood can get a decided edge over the bookmaker, who doesnt have the time to stay juiced in to industry news and gossip.
With many books taking bets on awards like ‘Best Picture’ before nominations are even announced, a bettor has a great opportunity to find overlay situations. By staying on top of the entertainment news and accurately predicting which films will be nominated, its often possible to get substantially better prices than will be available after their announcement.
Making the Academy Awards an even better candidate for futures wagers is the nature of the film business itself. The release schedule for films is set well in advance, and after the year end cut off date no ‘surprise’ releases can sneak in to consideration. At this point, its relatively easy to narrow down the serious contenders and with some work to come up with a ‘short list’ of Oscar candidates.
It’s also possible to leverage value in the ‘stick and ball’ sports with future wagers. There are obviously more variables in sports than in the entertainment industry and the top teams are never going to be found ‘under the radar’. For example, you can already bet that the Patriots will win the 2010 Superbowl but you’ll be hard pressed to find a value price on such a popular team with the general public.
The place to find value in this sort of proposition is to look at the less obvious teams. A few years ago an associate of mine took positions on several teams NHL that started slowly, including the Calgary Flames at 40/1. By the end of the regular season they were down to prices as low as 5/1 or 6/1.
This play wasn’t based on any sort of profound revelation that a team that underachieved early in the season would turn it around, but rather on the potential value they presented. In other words, the ‘true odds’ were far less than the number offered at the time the bet was placed. At these high prices, its possible to isolate a few potential ‘dark horse’ candidates and should any pan out they present a variety of opportunities to hedge and lock in profits.
Dont forget the field. Many bettors dismiss plays on the field in a futures wager out of hand, thinking that the wager represents all of the entrants not good enough to justify an individual price. If you pay attention, however, you can frequently use a field wager to your advantage. Shortly after Dale Earnhardts tragic death at the 2001 Daytona 500 I found a sportsbook that was offering a field wager on the NASCAR rookie of the year award at 15/1. Richard Childress Racing hadnt officially announced Harvick as the fulltime replacement for Earnhardt, but the word on the streets strongly suggested that would be the case. I knew that Harvick was a talented young driver (he was the 2000 Busch Series rookie of the year), but the unique situation with a rookie driving for one of the best financed and most experienced teams in the sport was too good to pass up. I made the bet on Harvick at just the right time, since after he was announced as the replacement for Earnhardt the line dropped to 5/1. After he won his first race (in his third race) the line dropped to 2/1 and by mid season the field was a -250 chalk.
Clearly the Harvick play was a ‘best case scenario’ but there are other instances where value can be had on ‘the field’. While sportsbooks have learned a lot about NASCAR in recent years, up until a few years ago it was frequently possible to find a ‘field’ bet on road course races that included the ‘specialists’ that teams frequently hire for these events. In other words, it was possible to bet a group of road course ‘ringers’ such as Ron Fellows, Scott Pruett and Robbie Gordon with one wager. Again, you have to keep your eyes open and be ready to act quickly to take advantage of these rare opportunities.
As a postscript, I want to emphasize the importance on shopping around any futures play for the best price. Shopping points is a smart thing to do on any wager, but the differences from book to book are frequently most extreme with futures plays. A little legwork can yield a substantially better price and the resulting better value.
Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer specializing in casino gambling, travel and sports betting. He has appeared on a number of TV and radio programs offering strategies for successful NFL football betting. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a pet llama. He is currently writing a biography of former NFL quarterback Jim McMahon.
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