RSSThe Basics Of The Kentucky Derby for Horse Racing Beginners
Nov 27
Travel Tips animals, entertainment, gambling, hobbies, Horse Racing, leisure, recreation, reference, sports, travel, Travel Tips No Comments
Although the Breeders’ Cup is nipping at its heels, without a doubt the Kentucky Derby is the biggest horse race of the year in the United States. This is a race that attracts many fans from the general public that typically don’t follow horse racing. A thorough understanding of horse racing, and which horses will win and why is a complex discipline that requires extensive specialized knowledge.
While understanding and predicting horse races is a very complex discipline, here are some basics that can help the amateur understand the Kentucky Derby. Back during the seventies, it was a race dominated by the favorite including three great Triple Crown winners”Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed”and a great horse that came close, Spectacular Bid. Since Spectacular Bid won the Derby in’79, however, you can count the favorites who’ve won the race on one hand with fingers left over. If I was a serious horseplayer, I might not advise you to do this but since I’m just worried about predicting the outcome of this one race Im going to suggest that you forget about the favorite altogether. Not only will you not be flying in the face of recent history, but also it allows you to concentrate on the horses offering greater value.
So why has the favorite done so poorly in recent years? One theory suggests that it is a by-product of the hype surrounding the race. Novice horse fans back the favorite, making it more of a popularity contest than anything else. The reality is that the horse with the most hype is not always the best horse.
Post position is also something that the horse racing neophyte should pay attention to. Obviously post position number 1 is an advantage relative to the outer ones, but it hasnt been a strong edge over the other inside positions. Twelve Derby winners have had the #1 position going into the race (the most of any position) but positions #4 and #5 have had ten winners each. In terms of percentages, positions #1 through #5 have yielded 49 winners (or just under 40%). On the other hand, the outermost positions (#11 through #20) have had just 16 winners (or just under-%). It is important to note that theres not always that many horses in the race, which would obviously result in few higher posts winning. Still, concentrating on horses with favorable post positions is another way to pare down a field that you know little about.
A couple more factors to consider are the horse’s gender and breeding lineage. A couple of simple rules can be applied here–first of all, forget all horses that aren’t intact males (geldings and fillies). Over 90% of all Derby winners have been intact males. Then, eliminate any horse that wasn’t born in the state of Kentucky. This stipulation is starting to change, but for the time being is a good rule to apply for the novice. Over 80% of all Derby winners have been born in Kentucky.
Also, take a look at dosage index numbers. For the novice, there’s no real reason to worry about what they mean or how they’re figured but the general rule of thumb is to look for a horse with a dosage index of 4.00 or less. Since’84, over half of all Derby winners have fit this criteria.
If you want to learn about horse racing in more depth, there are countless books available to introduce you to the subject. For a recreational fan who just wants to have a better understanding of the Kentucky Derby, these rules can help.
Ross Everett is a freelance writer specializing in casino gambling, fine dining and sports betting. He has appeared on a number of TV and radio programs offering strategies for successful NFL football betting. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a pet llama. He is currently writing a biography of former NFL quarterback Jim McMahon.
No related posts.
Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.